Last updated: Jan 8, 2026
PALLADIUM (PALL)
Palladium prices fell sharply over the past week (-8.89%) amid extremely elevated volatility, while ETF inflows ran modestly above average at 1.15× the 30-day norm. Futures positioning remains net short, and a large ETF-to-spot return divergence (-19.79%) points to heavy ETF selling pressure. Historically, similar weak-signal environments have produced mixed outcomes, with the current combination of sharp price declines, high volatility, and a bullish volume–price divergence reflecting an uncertain and unstable near-term market backdrop.
"Palladium shows significant weakness with strong downward momentum and elevated selling pressure. ETF returns lag spot prices by nearly 20% over 7 days while futures positioning remains bearish."
Market Dynamics
Explanation
ETF flows at average levels with 1.15x typical volume, mixed accumulation signals, price declining -8.9% over 7 days with strong downward momentum, volatility elevated at 1.5x normal levels, bullish divergence between volume and price
What’s happening right now
↓ ETF flows 1.15x at average levels • price volatility elevated 1.5x • volume activity decreasing • price falling -8.9% over 7 days • bullish divergence detected (volume increase amid price decline)
Why this pattern matters historically
Current weak pattern with score 21.77 shows heightened risk compared to historical STRONG signals that produced 76.9% success rates and 17.31% average 30-day returns. The bullish divergence signal has historically preceded reversals but requires confirmation from other indicators.
What data is behind this?
ETF Volume Ratio: 1.15×
vs 30-day average
Volume Trend: DECREASING
Price Change (7d): -8.89%
7-day change
Pattern: FALLING
Volatility Ratio: 1.5×
vs baseline
Current: 1.5×
Historical Outcomes Following NONE Signals
| Horizon | Avg Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1 Day | -0.10% |
| 7 Days | 2.12% |
| 30 Days | 12.39% |
Past outcomes are shown for educational context only and do not imply future performance.
Understanding the Data
- •Shows average price movement following similar signals
- •30-day horizon typically shows strongest outcomes
- •Data based on historical patterns, not future predictions